“I am extremely worried about the United States, almost more than about any other country,” added Kelemen. “The basic problem is that for a democracy to function, you need at least two main parties committed to democratic norms and processes. And unfortunately in the United States, the Trump forces, the MAGA forces, have taken over the Republican Party.”
Trump has repeatedly asserted that he would use the Department of Justice to go after political rivals if reelected | Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images
In Europe, where hundreds of millions will vote in a pan-EU election in June, the danger of a wholesale switch to autocracy appears less acute. However, Kelemen warns that Europe’s tolerance for autocrats in its midst, namely Hungarian strongman leader Viktor Orbán, sets a dangerous precedent by encouraging others to follow in his path.
Indeed, many European countries are vulnerable to Orbán’s model of power exercised through crony networks and media control. Bulgaria is a flimsy democracy, where parties act as large patronage networks, particularly around elections, while organized crime and Russia play an outsize role. Greece is also increasingly in the spotlight because of government pressure on public institutions, with the government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis being accused of undermining the regulators probing the state’s wiretapping of politicians and journalists.
All of this matters to the functioning of the EU itself, which has had very limited success in policing its member countries over failings in rule of law and democratic backsliding, while those same countries have a free hand in thwarting the EU. Orbán perfectly illustrates this major weakness in the EU as one Kremlin-aligned leader can block progress on major decisions. For example, he prevented a vital financial lifeline for Ukraine in December.
Kelemen argues it was a grave mistake to keep pandering to the Hungarian leader by agreeing in December to give Budapest €10 billion in EU funds which had been frozen over rule-of-law concerns.
“There is a huge price to pay for giving up your leverage,” he said, referring to Brussels’ ability to force Orbán into making pro-democracy reforms. “The whole mechanism of suspending funds now won’t really have the same deterrent effect. Other regimes will take note.”
Source link : https://www.politico.eu/article/democracy-2023-elections-united-states-europe-united-kingdom-russia-taiwan-donald-trump/
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Publish date : 2024-01-01 03:00:00
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