If Ukraine and its Western supporters lose resolve, Europe may face a scenario where Russia subjugates the rest of Ukraine, installs a puppet regime, and gradually integrates most or all of the country into a new Russian empire.
If Ukraine and its Western supporters lose resolve, Europe may face a scenario where Russia subjugates the rest of Ukraine, installs a puppet regime, and gradually integrates most or all of the country into a new Russian empire.
In the long term, it would be a Pyrrhic victory for Moscow. The repressive empire would struggle to digest its occupied lands, subdue a restive population, and bear the burden of very high military expenditures in a new era of confrontation. Moscow would trade its medieval Mongol yoke for a 21st-century Chinese one—and be seriously left behind as the rest of the world enters a new green and digital age. Sooner or later, Russia would face its third state collapse in little more than a century.
A Russian victory and collapse of the Ukrainian state would have extremely grave consequences for Europe as well.
For starters, we can expect tens of millions of new refugees. In the Ukrainian territories Russia has occupied—first in 2014 and then since 2022—the population is now a fraction of what it was before. If a similar ratio applies to further Russian conquests, it would be realistic to count on 10 million to 15 million refugees, in addition to the slightly more than 4 million Europe is hosting already, flowing into nearby European states.
A Russian victory would transform European politics in several respects. Thoughts of an accommodation with this new Russia—something entertained until recently in Paris, Berlin, and some other European capitals—would be entirely unrealistic. A Ukrainian government-in-exile would operate from Warsaw or somewhere else in Central Europe. Defense expenditures—set to reach 4 percent of GDP in Poland this year and at least 2 percent across much of NATO—will need to double yet again in order to credibly deter threats from an increasingly desperate Russian regime.
New conflicts could be on the horizon. To which old borders would Russian President Vladimir Putin like to restore the Kremlin’s empire? Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states were all once ruled from Moscow, and anyone with access to Kremlin-approved television can find Russian imperialist dreamers talking in these terms.
Restoring the empire beyond Ukraine may be an unrealistic prospect for an overburdened, struggling regime, but who dares to take that for granted in Helsinki, Riga, or Warsaw? A new age of European confrontation is certain.
An illustration shows blue missiles with yellow stars, echoing the European Union flag.
An illustration shows blue missiles with yellow stars, echoing the European Union flag.
The EU Is Being Reshaped by War
An illustration shows a map of Europe on fire and half burned away, with the Russian flag on the underside of the map.
An illustration shows a map of Europe on fire and half burned away, with the Russian flag on the underside of the map.
Europe in a Geostrategic Firestorm
An illustration shows a grenade wrapped in the blue and yellow stars of the European Union flag and Donald Trump’s hand pulling out the grenade’s pin.
An illustration shows a grenade wrapped in the blue and yellow stars of the European Union flag and Donald Trump’s hand pulling out the grenade’s pin.
Europe Is Not Ready for Trump
An illustration shows a blue aircraft carrier in open water and yellow fighter jets, echoing the stars of the European Union flag, arriving and departing the aircraft carrier.
An illustration shows a blue aircraft carrier in open water and yellow fighter jets, echoing the stars of the European Union flag, arriving and departing the aircraft carrier.
Deterring Russia Is Cheaper Than War
An illustration shows a map of the United Kingdom under a model of London Bridge in the raised position. Traffic is stopped leading up to the raised bridge, but there is no road on the other side of structure.
An illustration shows a map of the United Kingdom under a model of London Bridge in the raised position. Traffic is stopped leading up to the raised bridge, but there is no road on the other side of structure.
Britain Will Recommit to Europe
An illustration shows the Euro symbol. The negative space between the two horizontal lines is a matchstick that is on fire.
An illustration shows the Euro symbol. The negative space between the two horizontal lines is a matchstick that is on fire.
Europe’s Vulnerable Economy
An illustration shows a road sign with a podium symbol becoming a series of arrows pointing in many directions against a red background with clouds gathering.
An illustration shows a road sign with a podium symbol becoming a series of arrows pointing in many directions against a red background with clouds gathering.
Asia Sees European Confusion
An illustration shows the stars of the European Union flag, some with soldiers inside of them.
An illustration shows the stars of the European Union flag, some with soldiers inside of them.
Who Will Still Fight for Europe?
Putin is waging his war both to subjugate Ukraine and to rebalance the global order away from the West and what he considers U.S. domination. For his first aim, he has lukewarm Chinese support, but for the second, he has a strong ally in Beijing, which equally sees any Western weakening as buttressing its own position.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said before the U.S. Congress in April that Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow. Like the fall of Saigon and the fall of Kabul, a Russian victory in Ukraine would be seen across the world as an even more significant sign of the United States’ waning power. The appetite for adventurism from numerous actors is bound to increase.
The consequences of letting Russia win in Ukraine would be catastrophic for the Ukrainians, extremely serious for the security of Europe, and profoundly destabilizing for the rest of the world. In the end, it would probably lead to a collapse of Russia itself—which would present Europe with a whole other set of consequences to prepare for.
Source link : https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/01/russia-ukraine-war-europe-politics-refugees/
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Publish date : 2024-07-01 00:41:06
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