Ukraine’s accession in the EU sets a precedent. Despite the ongoing war, large internal and external migration, economic hardships, and issues with political liberties and civil rights, the Ukrainian government continues with the efforts to start negotiations and obtain the EU membership as soon as possible. And the current European Commission and Parliament seem to be fully supportive of this endeavor. Ukraine’s “accession through war” writes a new page in the history of the EU and sets an accession precedent that demonstrates the Union’s ambition to be a much stronger geopolitical player.
Recent progress
The vast majority of the governments of EU member-states, as well as the European Council and European Commission, are supportive to Ukraine’s efforts of joining the EU. Judging by the official documents, this support was pronounced in the form of focusing on the progress Ukraine makes, not on the war-caused issues and drawbacks.
This focus on Ukraine’s progress was especially underlined in the European Council’s Conclusions on enlargement process adopted on 12 December 2023. Here, the Council commended the “substantial progress” that Ukraine made “towards meeting the objectives” necessary not only for candidate status, but also for the start of negotiations regarding the EU membership. The Council specifically stressed that it valued Ukraine’s progress “on the rule of law as well as on judicial and administration reform.” Simultaneously, the report defined the need to further strengthen Ukraine’s anti-corruption institutions, the independence of its regulatory authorities, and its further integration in the EU internal market.
These conclusions relied on the European Commission’s report that ended with the recommendations to open accession negotiations with Ukraine. This recommendation turned into an EU decision to start membership negotiations with Ukraine on 15 December 2023.
Since December 2023, Kyiv started preparations for the negotiations. And Brussels, as one can see from the March 2024 Council’s conclusions, remained focused on progress and hopes that signaled to the EU member-state governments its support for Ukraine starting bilateral negotiations.
Assessing the formal readiness of Ukraine for the EU membership
For the geopoliticizing EU, the argument of a political will regarding accession becomes almost equally as important as the Copenhagen criteria and the Acquis. Which means that the normative nature of the Union is changing.
Examining the Council’s reports on Ukraine’s progress across in 2022–24, it is possible to see the considerable progress in the areas of digital transformation (Chapter 10), customs union (29), green agenda’s energy (15) and external relations (30 and 31) in those years. Some “early stage” progress (i. e. carefully phrased concerns) was acknowledged for the areas of freedom of movement for workers (2), agriculture and rural development (11), social policy and employment (19), and financial control and budgetary provisions (32 and 33). In the rest of remaining out of 35 areas, the reporters saw only “some progress” made by Ukraine. The assessments show that under usual circumstances, Ukraine would need considerable time to finish the war and achieve the readiness level necessary for opening negotiations, as was in the case of post-war Croatia.
Informal side of the accession process
Currently, Kyiv and Brussels are trying hard to open formal talks on the membership at the Brussels – Kyiv intergovernmental conference on 25 June 2024. This is the step that some EU member-states’ governments endorse and demand. However, there is also an opposition to this step led by Budapest. And it is critical for the pro-Ukrainian EU leaders to open the talks with Ukraine before Hungary starts its EU presidency on 1 July 2024.
In their recent publication, Politico journalists informed about the heated informal debates among the EU national leaderships on Ukraine. Despite the Council’s decision in regard with the membership negotiations with Kyiv, their opening has been delayed because of Hungary’s position. The relationships between the two neighboring countries deteriorated in the last ten years and translated into an obstacle for both Ukraine’s European integration and Hungary’s normal relations with the European Commission. As reported by Politico, Budapest wants to postpone the talks until the issue with Hungarian minorities in Ukraine is resolved.
Conclusions
Since 2022, Europe became a continent divided between the European Union and the Russia-Belarus block. The EU is adapting to the changing environment. Probably, it will be possible to determine its effective capability to adapt based on the final outcome of Ukraine’s accession process.
As the above reports on formal and informal processes demonstrate, there are no debates about Ukraine’s EU membership in principle. Despite its security and socio-economic dire situation, Ukraine is recognized as a legitimate subject of the credible enlargement process. Even more, the timeline of this process is seen by many current European leaders in terms of the fast-track policy. The EU demonstrated that it could provide necessary resources to support for Ukraine’s advancement towards the membership. The fact that this process sets a precedent challenging the usual accession normative logic does not hinder it. Even more, it pushes the EU to adapt faster to the new security conditions and to find its proper place in the fragmented world of today.
The attitudes toward Ukraine in the EU may change, if the Eurosceptical forces’ influence grows after the European elections. The entangled Kyiv – Budapest relations demonstrate what can happen if Eurosceptics take over more governments among the EU member-states. This can partially explain the fast-track policy of the current EC. The current Commission’s legacy seems to be the following: it will leave with all critical decisions on the Ukraine’s EU membership made.
Still, even if all the main decisions are made, the real bilateral negotiations process may take much longer. The speed of accession will depend on Kyiv’s ability to take all necessary steps and getting endorsement by each EU member-state. The deteriorating security situation and possible Eurosceptics’ influence indeed may interrupt the process of gaining membership for Ukraine. So far, however, Kyiv demonstrated the ability to pursue its membership agenda successfully.
Source link : https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/ukraines-accession-into-the-european-union-state-of-affairs-in-may-2024-176396
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Publish date : 2024-06-07 11:13:36
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