History has finally caught up with Europe. In hindsight, the continent’s long period of relative peace from 1945 to 2022 was an aberration. In any European capital today, the mood seems starkly different than before Russia invaded Ukraine. Suddenly, from Berlin to Brussels, leaders are racing to resuscitate their defense infrastructure and update their militaries—each dependent for too long on a U.S. security blanket that is no longer guaranteed. Despite the gravity of the moment, Europe’s attempts to put up a united front are like a pail with several leaks: In Belgrade, Bratislava, and Budapest, leaders friendly to the Kremlin have ridden a wave of disinformation and fearmongering to get elected or stay in power. The success of far-right parties in the European Parliament elections in June only added to fears about the continent’s stability.
History has finally caught up with Europe. In hindsight, the continent’s long period of relative peace from 1945 to 2022 was an aberration. In any European capital today, the mood seems starkly different than before Russia invaded Ukraine. Suddenly, from Berlin to Brussels, leaders are racing to resuscitate their defense infrastructure and update their militaries—each dependent for too long on a U.S. security blanket that is no longer guaranteed. Despite the gravity of the moment, Europe’s attempts to put up a united front are like a pail with several leaks: In Belgrade, Bratislava, and Budapest, leaders friendly to the Kremlin have ridden a wave of disinformation and fearmongering to get elected or stay in power. The success of far-right parties in the European Parliament elections in June only added to fears about the continent’s stability.
From Europe’s vantage point, the world looks menacing. If Donald Trump wins a second term as president, he may do as he says and pull the United States out of NATO, the world’s biggest security alliance. Even if Trump doesn’t win, Washington seems likely to focus more on Beijing and less on Brussels. Other countries are noticing the fraying of Europe’s old ties and looking to take advantage. When Chinese President Xi Jinping embarked on his first European tour since 2019 in May, he visited France, Hungary, and Serbia—countries that prize their strategic autonomy or are willing to undermine European Union and NATO priorities. As Europe’s hand weakens, the rest of the world will look to divide and conquer the continent.
With its security precarious and its alliances weakening, what will Europe’s future look like? That’s the question we posed to nine influential thinkers in this issue’s cover package, “Europe Alone.” One of our contributors, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, calls on his neighbors to follow Warsaw’s lead and match its alliance-leading defense contribution to NATO. Europe “must spend more so that the world’s democratic bloc can keep its influence and way of life,” he argues. Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt adds to that warning: “Like the fall of Saigon and the fall of Kabul, a Russian victory in Ukraine would be seen across the world as an even more significant sign of the United States’ waning power. The appetite for adventurism from numerous actors is bound to increase.”
In a separate essay, political scientist Hal Brands offers a take from the other side of the Atlantic. Europe has changed so much since World War II that Americans “have forgotten how hopeless the continent once seemed,” he writes. Brands describes a few scenarios for Europe if the United States retreats across the Atlantic. They’re not pretty. “Indeed, if there is a lesson from Europe’s past, it is that the descent can come sooner and be steeper than currently seems possible to imagine,” he writes.
On July 9, leaders from around Europe will gather in Washington for a summit to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO. It won’t be a celebration of the past—not while the future is at stake. The essays in this issue will hopefully provide some useful context and analysis for the consequential summer and important elections ahead of us.
There is a lot more in the issue, including a selection of our signature arguments from around the world and an exploration of a confounding Portuguese word. Don’t miss FP columnist Howard W. French’s take on Wang Feng’s new book on China’s rise. French speaks Mandarin, regularly visits and has written books about China, and says he’s astounded by what he learned.
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As ever,
Ravi Agrawal
Source link : https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/01/europe-nato-eu-alliances-russia-ukraine-trump-china/
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Publish date : 2024-07-01 01:26:53
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