Current Situation
Returnee/refugee burden: The continued influx of thousands of South Sudanese returnees and refugees are a primary driver of elevated humanitarian needs during the post-harvest period. A large proportion of the returnees and refugees fleeing from Sudan are located in Renk of Upper Nile, Rubkona of Unity, and Aweil East of Northern Bahr el Ghazal, while a large proportion of the returnees that left Gambella between August and December 2023 are returning to Laukpiny/Nasir. According to OCHA’s situation report as of January 2024, about 43,000 refugees and 58,000 returnees, are currently hosted in Renk. A FEWS NET rapid assessment in late January 2024 confirmed with regional authorities that 28,879 returnees are present in Rubkona. This influx is on top of an estimated 200,000 protracted flood-displaced persons living in the area since past years of severe flooding. UNHCR and IOM estimated that Luakpiny/Nasir had received about 51,730 South Sudanese returnees, about half of the estimated returnees that left Gambella due to insecurity and the pause of assistance in refugee camps.
The large influx of South Sudanese returnees (both from Sudan and Ethiopia) into the areas of concern is placing significant pressure on already limited resources and over-strained services in host communities, as most of these arrivals have little to no assets and are heavily dependent on host households for food and income. An assessment conducted by REACH in Rubkona in December 2023 found that the high returnee burden has contributed to early depletion of food stocks and adoption of atypical and severe coping strategies (risky migration, continued liquidation of assets, heavy dependence on wild foods) among returnee and host communities due to extremely limited livelihood opportunities. The FEWS NET rapid assessment in Rubkona confirmed the persistence of severe acute food insecurity among returnees and protracted displaced persons who missed assistance deliveries due to a lack of or loss of ration cards and were relying heavily on water lilies and fish for income and food. Field assessments conducted in Luakpiny/Nasir by MedAir in late November reported similarly worsening conditions in returnee households and the heavy burden exerted on host communities. In Renk, the situation remains precarious and unpredictable given the surging number of new arrivals from the recent intense fighting between the Sudanese army and Rapid Support force in White Nile State, close to the South Sudan border, and severe overcrowding in reception and transit areas. Combined with limited access to basic health and nutrition services and overall very poor living conditions, levels of morbidity and malnutrition are high. In addition, high levels of criminality are being exacerbated by the influx of people from the Sudan conflict.
Protracted impact of conflict and flood shocks: Some of these areas have been subject to consecutive years of conflict and/or flood shocks. The protracted impacts of these shocks have decimated households’ productive assets, undermined traditional livelihoods, and eroded coping capacity. Rubkona of Unity in particular has experienced the highest impact of both conflict and flood shocks. Hundreds and thousands of households have been displaced from across Unity to Rubkona and are still encamped in displacement sites living in very poor conditions. The persistence of high residual floodwaters in Rubkona continues to restrict households’ movement, trade flows, and delivery of humanitarian assistance in some affected areas. Moreover, the flooding has compounded poor hygiene and sanitation conditions with the arrival of thousands of newly displaced people, contributed to the high prevalence of human disease in the displacement camp, and further aggravating the already severe acute malnutrition and food security situations in this area. Although FEWS NET’s rapid assessment in Rubkona in January found floodwaters have receded and are facilitating household and humanitarian movement in some parts of Rubkona, particularly in Budang, Kaljak of Nhial diu of Rubkona Payam, and Rotriak and Panakuach Boma, some areas including Wathjak, Ngop, Panhiang, Dhorbor, and parts of Dingding Payams are still inundated, limiting household engagement in livelihood activities and sustaining dependency on food assistance dependence. This is further aggravated by continued tension and sporadic clashes, most recently between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) in Barkuol Ngol of Rubkona in late January 2024 that displaced civilians and disrupted humanitarian assistance deliveries, trade flows, and market activities.
Household food stocks: Own production, which was once an important source of both food and income for households in all areas of concern, has been deeply undermined by years of conflict and flooding. Many households in all areas have low production that often depletes within a few months. However, with the added burden on households to share with returnees, stocks deplete even earlier, as corroborated by FEWS NET and REACH assessments in January and February 2023. In Renk, key informants report that as of February some host households are still consuming their own produce, while both returnees and refugees are relying on market purchases for food while being supported via cash distributions from WFP and other agencies while awaiting onward transport from Renk. In Rubkona, recent field assessment conducted by FEWS NET in late January 2024 confirmed crop production was limited to highland areas of Barkuor boma due to high floodwaters, and most of the maize was consumed pre-maturely as green during peak hunger period in August/October. As such there is no carry-over stock from 2023 production season. Meanwhile in Aweil East preliminary findings from rapid assessment conducted by FEWS NET in early February 2024 also confirmed production was low to due dry spells, pests and disease and depleted in many households as early as in December 2023 and January 2024.
Livestock production: In all areas of concern, livestock is traditionally the second most important source of food and income and a crucial means of meeting the consumption deficit during the lean period when own stocks are depleted. However, as with crop production, consecutive years of conflict, cattle raiding, and/or flooding have eroded this asset, although the extent varies considerably across counties. In Aweil East and Nasir, livestock ownership remains higher and more stable than in Renk and Rubkona, preserving relatively better access to this important source of income and food. In Rubkona, where ownership rates are particularly low, recent findings from a FEWS NET focus group discussion found that nearly 60 percent of the households had lost their livestock during the 2020 floods and have not been able to restock.
For those who do own livestock, available field and satellite-based monitoring information indicates livestock and rangeland conditions are generally ranging from fair (Renk, Nasir, Rubkona) to poor (Aweil East). Field reports confirm livestock herds are currently in dry season grazing areas in Renk, Aweil East, and Rubkona due to poor availability of pasture in the homestead. In Nasir, livestock are reportedly grazing in toic (grasslands) along the Sobat River. The seasonal migration of livestock to dry season grazing areas is likely limiting household access to milk and other livestock products.
Wild foods: Access to wild foods is limited as of late January and early February in Rubkona (due to floodwaters) and Aweil East (insecurity). In Renk and Nasir, key informants report a relatively calm security environment that is permitting household access to wild gathering and fishing that is complementing household food and income sources. In Rubkona, FEWS NET observed relatively high availability of fish and water lily but also high dependence among poor households and returnees. As a result, the local authority had commenced regulating access to wild food collection to avoid over-exploitation and to ensure every household has access. In Nasir, key informants indicate that there is adequate access to both wild gathering and fishing, but the high dependency on these food sources is likely to lead to over-exploitation and depletion. The field report further indicates lack of fishing gear and canoes are constraining households’ adequate access to fish in Nasir and Rubkona. FEWS NET’s February 2024 assessment in Aweil East also found returnees and IDPs are engaging in sale of forest products including grasses, local poles, firewood, charcoal, and engaging in petty business to earn some income.
Markets and trade: Market purchases play a significant role in filling the cereal deficit in all areas of concern. According to field monitoring information, domestic trade flows are occurring along the Renk-Melut, Maban-Renk-Malakal; Juba-Rumbek-Wau-Aweil; Juba-Rumbek-Wau–Kuajok-Rubkona via Mayom; and the Juba-Bor-Adok-Manga of Rubkona via Nile River trade routes. In addition, key markets in the area are reportedly functional and have local supplies (sorghum, fish) available with a few imported commodities. However, retail prices remain very high given the trade disruptions with Sudan, high transport costs domestically (driven by high fuel costs, illegal checkpoints along routes, and SSP deterioration), poor feeder roads, persistent insecurity, and/or floodwaters along the trade routes.
Available sorghum market price data for January 2024 shows the retail price of a malwa (3.5kgs) of white sorghum remained similar to prices observed in December 2023 in Renk market, due to availability of local supply. The retail price of a malwa of red sorghum in Rubkona in January 2024 was 50 percent and 14.3 percent lower than observed in December and January 2023, respectively, due to availability of food aid and increased market supply linked to improvement in feeder road conditions that permit trade flow to Rubkona. In Aweil East, the retail price of red sorghum was 19.5 percent lower than observed in December 2023, but 12.3 percent higher than the same month last year, due to high market dependence linked to the presence of returnees and refugees in the county. Key informants report that in Nasir the cost of 50 kgs of sorghum has doubled in one month (between December 2023 to January 2024). The persistently high staple food prices and low household purchasing power linked to poor macroeconomic conditions are limiting adequate access to purchase market food in all areas.
Humanitarian food assistance: Humanitarian assistance is a crucial source of food for many households in all areas of concern given the significant erosion of household assets and coping capacities, high staple food prices, and the negative impacts of floods and/or conflict on households’ ability to produce their own food. WFP distribution reports for the November 2023 to January 2024 period shows humanitarian food assistance (HFA) taken as a three-month average was only significant in Rubkona, reaching 47 percent of the county population monthly with 37 percent of kilocalorie needs. While reach is high in Renk given the large numbers of returnees, it is provided in a mix of hot meals, fortified biscuits, and cash distributions, and thus is not meeting kilocalorie thresholds. FEWS NET found that WFP also distributed food assistance to about 175,769 internally displaced persons in Nhaldiu, Dingding, Rubkona town, Bentiu town and PoC, and 26,556 returnees during the November to December 2023 period. In Renk, OCHA reports that 55,000 people received food assistance and about 5,000 people were treated for moderate acute malnutrition. In Nasir, key informant reports cash assistance was provided by World Vision to 1,400 households in Kuetrenge, Nasir town, Jikmir, and Maker Payams. In Aweil East, a FEWS NET assessment in early February 2024 found food assistance had not been provided to vulnerable households since July 2023, but GFD was expected to start in February 2024.
Current food security outcomes
Most of these areas of concern remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in February 2024 except in Rubkona where the large scale-up of assistance since November is expected to have mitigated Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) and some of the Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with the area currently assessed in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!). Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are being driven by the continued influx of South Sudanese returnees, atypical stock depletion, high staple food prices, limited purchasing power, significant productive asset erosion, and limited household ability to engage in productive livelihoods.
Assumptions
In addition to the national-level assumptions, the following assumptions apply to these areas of concern:
Given the increasing presence of Arab nomads in Aweil East and Rubkona, and continued activities of South Sudan rebels led by General Stephen Buay in northern Unity and armed Misseriya militia along the Sudan-Darfur-Northern Bahr el Ghazal border region, acts of lawlessness and insecurity are likely to persist in Aweil East and Northern Rubkona. These will restrict household movement and disrupt both humanitarian deliveries and trade flows in these areas during the projection period. Owing to prolonged impacts of conflict and floods in all areas and the poor macroeconomic conditions characterized by low domestic investments, income-earning opportunities are likely to remain very limited in all areas of concern. This is likely to be worsened by ongoing conflict in Sudan as this further limits an opportunity for seasonal migrant labor; high competition for available labor opportunities will likely drive low daily wage rates amid rising cost of living in all areas of concern throughout the projection period.Trade flows to all areas of concern from Juba through Nile River, and land and other supply areas, including Uganda and Ethiopia, are expected to continue with less interruption through May but are likely to remain limited with Sudan due to ongoing conflict and insecurity in the border region. The overall level of market supply is likely to be low in all areas of concern due to high supply costs linked to insecurity and high taxes along the trade routes. As a result, staple food prices are expected to increase and be higher than last year throughout the projection period and limit food access in all markets in areas of concern due to high market dependency linked to the presence of high inflows of South Sudanese returnees and refugees. Based on WFP updated operational plans shared in December 2023, food assistance distribution is expected to gradually scale-up from February through the peak of the lean season in August/September, and reach 45 and 69 percent of county populations in Aweil East and Rubkona, respectively, during the February to May 2024 period, and scale-down to 32 and 62 percent during the June to September 2024 period, covering 70 percent of kilocalorie needs. In Nasir, WFP planned to reach 25 percent of county population during the February to May and June to September period, covering 50 percent of the kilocalorie needs. There is no plan for the host population in Renk as part of the lean season response during projection periods, however, over 80 percent of arrivals from the Sudan crisis come through Joda, and it remains the primary site for the Sudan crisis response. This is expected to continue though increasingly strained by a sustained high rate of arrivals. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
Food consumption is likely to deteriorate in all areas of concern from February through May (post-harvest and the typical start to the lean season) due to atypical depletion of household stocks, high and rising staple food prices, and below-average household access to income and food. As such, many households in all areas are likely to experience large food consumption gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. However, during this period, significant humanitarian food assistance with 21 days’ ration in Rubkona and Aweil East, in addition to some availability of fish and wild foods, are expected to mitigate extreme deterioration among households and sustain Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in Rubkona and Aweil East. In Renk and Nasir, high numbers of returnees will blunt the effect of planned humanitarian food assistance and drive Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes with some returnee households likely to face extreme consumption gaps, reflective of Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) among returnee populations, many of whom are likely located in Renk, Rubkona, and Aweil East.
During the June through September 2024 lean season, household food consumption will further deteriorate in all areas of concern due to below-average access to food and income sources combined with complete household stock exhaustion and high staple food prices amid low purchasing power. Although availability of wild foods and milk are likely to mitigate consumption deficits, large food consumption gaps, reflective of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in all areas. Some households will likely be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), particularly among returnee populations across these areas of concern given lack of assets such as livestock and limited access to humanitarian assistance and wild gathering. In Rubkona, a significant planned HFA with 21 days’ ration is expected to mitigate the severity but Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will remain high among ongoing influx of new returnees. Moreover, FEWS NET has determined that arisk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) exists in the upcoming lean season (between June and September 2024) in parts of north-central Unity and Upper Nile, driven by the increased likelihood of above-average rainfall under the forecasted La Niña conditions during the main rainy season and the potential for severe flooding in these persistently inundation parts of the Sudd wetlands. While it is not FEWS NET’s most likely scenario, if severe flooding occurs in conjunction with periods of intense conflict and impedes household mobility and access to humanitarian assistance for a prolonged period, particularly in areas with high burden of returnees unfamiliar with traditional coping mechanisms and already experiencing Critical levels of acute malnutrition, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) could occur.
Source link : https://fews.net/east-africa/south-sudan/food-security-outlook/february-2024-0
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Publish date : 2024-02-05 03:00:00
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