On October 10th 2023, amid relative disinterest from the international community, Liberia held general elections for the appointment of the President of the Republic for a six-year term, alongside the renewal of the entire House of Representatives and half of the Senate.
Given the absence of an absolute majority in the first round, a second round of the presidential elections will take place on November 14th determining the winner between the neck-and-neck frontrunners, current President George Weah, with 43.83% of votes in the first round, and challenger Joseph Boakai, who secured 43.44%.
The confrontation between the two is nothing new. The presidential election in Liberia follows the ‘American’ model, with a presidential ticket comprising a President and his Vice-President. All the presidential elections, held in the aftermath of the two Liberian civil wars (1989-1996 and 1999-2003), saw the two candidates oppose each other for one of the two roles. The 2005 and 2011 elections were won by President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf with Joseph Boakai on her vice-presidential ticket. George Weah, an unsuccessful candidate in these two elections (first as president then as vice-president), made a comeback in the 2017 elections, defeating Joseph Boakai The upcoming second round on November 14th, will probably mark the last chapter of this political rivalry.
A President Weah having suffered the wear and tear of power
George Weah, initially represented a symbol of success for the youth and the poor in Liberia, due to his rise from the capital’s slum to international stardom thanks to his outstanding football career that included his 1995 Ballon d’Or. As such his election in 2017 raised immense hopes.
Since then, however, his popularity has waned due to three factors in particular. The first is related to the pressing demand to reopen the investigation into war crimes committed during the two Liberian civil wars and bring perpetrators to justice. In 2009, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Liberia had released its findings on the civil wars in a report. The report, incriminating a large part of the political class, was buried by then-President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. For political reasons, George Weah never reversed this decision. In 2017, to achieve electoral success, George Weah had to secure the support of former rebel leaders. To add further complexity, George Weah’s vice-president both in 2017 and in 2023 is none other than Jewel Taylor, former wife of ex-President Charles Taylor, one of the main individuals implicated in the two civil wars. Still a heated debate, the creation of a War Crimes Court is also present between the two rounds of this year’s presidential election. Alexander Cummings, a prominent political figure who nevertheless scored abysmally in the first round (1.61%), has conditioned its support for one of the two candidates to the creation of such courts.
Another aspect in which Weah disappointed his electorate is the fight against corruption. While this was one of his most important campaign promises, the administration was entangled in 2018 by revelations concerning the disappearance of a shipment of new banknotes worth 16 billion Liberian Dollars (around 83 million euros). Even more compromising, in 2022, the United States announced sanctions against three executives of the Weah administration, including its own Chief of Staff and Minister of State Nathaniel McGill. Described as having “used his position to undermine the integrity and independence of Liberia’s democratic institutions and subvert government priorities for personal gain”, McGill was suspended by Weah, but has since been elected senator in October 2023.
Lastly, the promised efforts to fight poverty and improve the economy have not yielded the expected miracle. Despite some advances such as free access to university, easier access to land ownership and new infrastructural projects, particularly roads.
The shadow of inadmissible results hangs over the second round
Liberia has faced two particularly traumatic political periods: the dictatorship of President William Tubman (1944-1970) and the two civil wars (1989-1997 and 1999-2003).
The democratic process launched in 2005 represented a new beginning. Liberian politicians are, therefore, perfectly aware that any authoritarian inclination or any attempt to divide the nation, particularly along ethnic lines, will not be accepted. The 2011 election is a case in point. Winston Tubman, nephew of William Tubman, had decided after a first round which he considered rigged, to boycott the second round and announced that he would not recognize the results. By weakening the democratic process, he faced strong discontent, including from his own party. George Weah and Joseph Boakai are thus aware of the immense risk they would take if they refused to recognize the results. However, two elements raise concerns about a difficult outcome.
First of all, the extremely close scores of the two candidates, 43.83% against 43.44%, and the absence of a possible alliance with a “kingmaker” (the third candidate only obtained 2.2%), indicates that the winner will achieve a very narrow victory. This is unprecedented in the recent history of Liberia. Since 2005, the smallest gap dates back to that same year with a 59.4% victory for Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.
The second source of risk is that defeat would be difficult to accept for either camp. Concerning Joseph Boakai and his main political ally, Prince Johnson, both are all-in on this election. At 78 years old and with two defeats in presidential elections, Joseph Boakai would most certainly not be able to run again in 2029. During the 2017 election, Joseph Boakai heavily criticized George Weah’s victory, but the prospect of being held responsible for dividing the country pushed him to accept his defeat. This time around, with no return possible in 2029, Joseph Boakai would have little to lose. The same goes for his main ally, Prince Johnson. A former rebel leader who played a major role during the first Liberian civil war, Prince Johnson has since reintegrated into politics, maintaining great popularity at home in Nimba County. Third, in the 2011 election and fourth in the 2017 election, he helped Johnson Sirleaf and then George Weah himself win. Disappointed with the collaboration with the latter, he turned to Joseph Boakai in 2023 in exchange for the vice-presidency for his party through his young political heir, Jeremiah Koung. In the event of defeat in this election, Prince Johnson, 71, could support Joseph Boakai in mounting a strong challenge to the results. As for George Weah, if he were to lose this election, he would be faced with the ultimate democratic challenge: accepting to lose a tight race. Although a first round was overall calm, risks of violence after the results of the second round remain high .
Source link : https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/tense-second-round-in-liberias-presidential-election-152985
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Publish date : 2023-11-10 03:00:00
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